Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news
- Latest: ADP say just 167k new jobs in July
- UK Service sector growth best since 2015
- But job cuts accelerate amid recovery worries
- WH Smiths plans job cuts
Earlier:
Today’s ADP payroll report has alarmed Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton.
She fears that the US government’s own jobs report, due in 48 hours, could be weaker than hoped.
ADP shows an insignificant rise in employment in July – big revisions to June but the trend is in the wrong direction. Feeling sick about the official report on Friday; worse about August. https://t.co/BeUdQEsqUc
The details suggest the slowdown was driven by the leisure and hospitality sector which, after adding close to 2 million jobs in June, added just 38,000 in July, which would make sense given the renewed restrictions on bars and restaurants in many states. But most other sectors also saw a sharp slowdown.
That said, it is worth reiterating that the ADP has never been a great guide to the official payrolls figures and has actually been particularly poor in recent months, with the ADP’s initially published estimates for May and June (which have since been miraculously revised up to better match the official data) proving far too pessimistic.
Per this @markets chart:
Among the signals from an #ADP labor market report whose headline number (+167,000 #jobs) came below the range of expectations of economists and #WallStreet analysts (0.2-2.6 million), the worrisome indication that the pace of hiring moderated in July. pic.twitter.com/pHta39nKcr
In light of today’s ADP report, one real-time indicator shows the renewed struggle small biz’s are experiencing: Revenue, which after flat-ling in June, has more recently been declining. https://t.co/M5nBTe4mYO pic.twitter.com/uxhuK6zPzl
Signs of struggle were evident in the ADP payroll report. Inadequate and expiring stimulus is a glaring problem for small businesses – let’s hope Congress is watching. pic.twitter.com/RLCQYaoTbx
ADP reckon that medium-sized US companies actually cut staff in July:
ADP Non-Farm Employment pic.twitter.com/Ji6BaU656x