It’s not Brexit Britain most likely to have a recession. It’s Germany

If Europe’s biggest economy bumps into a slump then UK bargaining power may change

Take Europe’s three biggest economies and list them in order of the likelihood of being in recession in the second half of 2018. Chances are Brexit-bound Britain would come first followed by France after its gilets jaunes protests. Germany would come last.

In fact, it is the eurozone’s locomotive economy that is at biggest risk of fulfilling the technical definition of recession – two consecutive quarters of falling output. After contracting by 0.2% in the third quarter, the latest news from Germany suggests it may have struggled to grow in the fourth quarter as well.

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