UK faces new £20bn budget black hole – business live

Weak productivity and Brexit uncertainty make it hard for chancellor Philip Hammond to see tax cuts or spending increases in next month’s Budget

The IFS’s warning that Britain’s fiscal position is worse than forecast has cast some autumnal gloom over the economy.

And with Halloween looming, Anthony Doyle, fixed interest investment director at M&G, has send over some more spooky charts to give us the shivers.

Governments, corporates, and households have never lived beyond their means by so much.

For the first time, central bankers like Mario Draghi and Haruhiko Kuroda have been calling on unions to increase wage demands, with Draghi stating wages are the “primary driver of inflation”…..

Unless workers can start demanding higher rates of pay, it is likely they will continue to suffer real-wage declines. This has been the case in the UK, with unit labour costs and inflation growing by 16% and 25% respectively since 2008.”

“In March 2019, unless some form of deal is agreed, the UK will have to negotiate trade deals with the majority of its current trading partners. This would be a major challenge as complex trade agreements are not easy to negotiate and often take years to agree to.

If the UK finds itself outside the European Union Single market and the EU Customs Union, tariff and non-tariff trade barriers (like quotas, embargoes, and levies) are likely to be implemented between the UK and its main European trading partners. Some sectors and companies may face much more restricted access to the European market, and that will prove to be a significant headwind to UK economic growth in the short-term.”

Just in: The cost of living in Germany rose by less than expected this month.

German preliminary HICP inflation down to 1.5% YoY in October as feared. Downside risk to € flash HICP, not necessary to core inflation.

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